Canada's energy build-out will be won or lost on workforce. Is your business ready?

Canada is already one of the world's biggest energy producers. According to the figures Lee cites, we rank fourth in oil and fifth in natural gas. The problem is where it all goes. Historically, about 90% of our crude oil exports and nearly all of our natural gas exports have gone to the United States.

Lee's point is that U.S. pressure is forcing a conversation Canada has avoided for decades: what happens if we build the capacity to sell to the rest of the world?

Every business owner already knows the answer. If one customer buys 90% of what you make, they set the terms.

That's where Canada sits. U.S. trade policy has made the relationship less predictable, American interest in Venezuelan heavy crude creates competition for the kind of oil Canada produces, and instability in the Middle East keeps global buyers looking for reliable suppliers. Put those together and the case for diversifying gets a lot stronger.

Asia is the most likely target, with Europe also in the conversation. But you can't ship energy overseas without the infrastructure to get it there: pipelines to the coast, LNG export terminals, port capacity, and more power generation and transmission at home.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has said he wants Canada to become an “energy superpower,” and the federal government is planning for electricity demand that could double by 2050.

It's worth being honest that the path isn't settled. Some experts appearing before Parliament want the focus on electrification, clean technology and R&D. Others want more oil and gas infrastructure, faster approvals and investment incentives. There are also real questions about environmental impact, Indigenous participation, project economics and long-term global demand.

Here's why that matters less than you'd think for employers: whichever direction wins, somebody has to build it. Pipelines, LNG terminals, nuclear plants and transmission lines all need welders, electricians, engineers, drivers and suppliers.

Yes, and a bigger one than the headlines suggest. The federal government says two LNG projects alone represent more than $100 billion in potential investment, with thousands of construction jobs and permanent roles in B.C. and Alberta. Those are government projections, not guarantees, but they show the scale.

The occupations most likely to feel the pull include:

• Skilled trades like welders, pipefitters, electricians, millwrights, industrial mechanics and heavy equipment operators
• Engineers, project managers, estimators and quality inspectors
• Powerline and instrumentation technicians
• Truck drivers, dispatchers and logistics coordinators
• Health and safety, environmental and regulatory compliance staff

No. Ontario is already in the middle of one of the largest energy build-outs in the country, and most people outside the industry don't realize it.

Nuclear refurbishments at Darlington and Bruce, the small modular reactor project at Darlington, and major transmission expansion all run through Ontario. On top of that, big projects in the west still buy steel fabrication, valves, pumps, electrical components, controls and engineering services, and a lot of that capacity sits in Ontario, including York and Peel.

The question for Ontario businesses isn't whether the work exists. It's whether they're set up to win it.

More than most people expect:

• Manufacturing and fabrication: structural steel, piping, pressure vessels, machined parts, electrical equipment
• Construction: civil, mechanical and electrical contractors, plus specialty trades
• Transportation and logistics: heavy haul, warehousing, freight coordination
• Engineering and technical services: design, inspection, testing, commissioning
• Technology: automation, controls, monitoring software, cybersecurity for utilities
• Environmental services: assessment, remediation, monitoring
• Professional services: accounting, legal, HR, staffing, training

Large projects rely on thousands of suppliers. Most of them aren't energy companies.

Many can, especially shops serving automotive, aerospace, construction or heavy industry. Precision machining, welding, fabrication and quality systems carry over well.

That matters right now. Ontario's auto sector has taken real hits from U.S. tariffs, and a lot of capable shops are looking for new customers. Energy is one of the few sectors with long-term, large-scale demand.

But “our capabilities overlap” isn't the same as “we're qualified to bid.”

Energy buyers are strict because failure is expensive and dangerous. Depending on the work, you may need:

• Quality certification: ISO 9001 is the baseline. Some work requires API standards for oil and gas, or CSA N299 for nuclear.
• Welding certification: Canadian Welding Bureau certification under CSA W47.1, and ASME code work for pressure equipment and piping.
• Safety certification: a Certificate of Recognition (COR) and registration with the contractor prequalification platforms major operators use.
• Equipment: larger-format machining, heavier lifting capacity, specialized testing or inspection tools.
• People: certified welders, inspectors, quality staff and someone who can manage documentation. Energy work runs on paperwork.

There's no single number, and anyone who gives you one without seeing your shop is guessing. The cost can run from tens of thousands of dollars for certifications and quality system upgrades to millions for new equipment and facility changes.

What drives the number:

• How far your current capabilities are from what the buyer needs
• Whether you need new machinery or just new processes
• Facility limits like floor space, crane capacity and power supply
• Certification audits and consultant fees
• Training and hiring
• Working capital, since energy contracts often come with longer payment terms

Don't overlook that last one. Winning a big contract can strain cash flow before it helps it.

Longer than most owners plan for. A rough picture:

• Quality certifications like ISO 9001 often take six to twelve months
• Welding certifications can take weeks to months, depending on how ready you are
• Nuclear-grade qualification takes longer still
• Getting prequalified with a major buyer and winning a first contract can easily take a year or two

The businesses that win are the ones that start before the projects break ground.

Before spending serious money, get clear answers to these:

• Is there a real buyer? Talk to prime contractors and their procurement teams. Industry groups like the Organization of Canadian Nuclear Industries can help Ontario suppliers find out what's actually being bought.
• Can you start smaller? Supplying a tier-two or tier-three contractor is often a faster, lower-risk way in than going after the owner directly.
• Does it diversify you or distract you? New revenue that pulls you away from profitable existing customers isn't growth.
• Can you staff it? If you can't hire the people to deliver, the contract becomes a liability.

That last question kills more expansion plans than any other.

Canada already struggles to find skilled trades workers, and BuildForce Canada has warned for years that retirements will pull a large share of experienced workers out of construction this decade. Energy projects compete for the same welders, electricians and pipefitters as housing, transit and every other major build.

When several megaprojects hire at once, wages climb and smaller employers get outbid. That's the real risk for SMEs. The work may be there, but the people won't be.

Often, yes, and it's usually faster and cheaper than competing for the same small pool of experienced tradespeople.

The skills that transfer best:

• Auto and manufacturing workers bring machine operation, quality control and lean production experience
• Construction workers bring site safety, blueprint reading and trade fundamentals
• Warehouse and logistics workers bring inventory, shipping and equipment handling
• Military veterans bring discipline, safety culture and technical training

Someone who ran a CNC machine at an auto parts plant isn't starting from zero. With the right training and certification, they can be productive on energy work far sooner than a new hire off the street.

Everyone has a part, and it only works if they coordinate:

• Employers need to say clearly what they'll need, and when, before it's an emergency
• Colleges and trade schools need to build capacity in the programs that matter
• Employment and training organizations connect job seekers to training and to employers who are hiring
• Governments fund the pieces that no single business can afford on its own

If everyone waits for the shortage to show up, it's already too late.

The mix changes often, so check current eligibility, but programs worth looking at include:

• Training funding like the Canada-Ontario Job Grant, which shares the cost of training employees
• Tax credits like SR&ED for technical development, and federal investment tax credits for clean technology and clean electricity
• Financing through BDC for equipment and growth, and EDC if you're exporting
• Employment services that help with recruitment and hiring at no cost

What businesses need most is predictability. It's hard to justify a six or seven-figure retooling decision when policy direction could shift after the next election.

This is where governments need to follow through. Big projects naturally favour big suppliers who already have the certifications, bonding capacity and relationships.

Things that help: breaking large contracts into smaller packages, requiring Canadian and local content where trade rules allow, supporting SME certification costs, building supplier development programs into project approvals, and making real Indigenous business participation part of the plan from the start.

For individual businesses, the practical step is to get on the radar early. Register with buyers' supplier portals, attend industry days and build relationships with prime contractors before bids open.

Every major economic shift turns into a hiring problem sooner or later. A machine shop can buy new equipment in a few months, but it can't operate it without trained people. A contractor can win energy work, but it can't deliver without tradespeople. A logistics company can land a new client, but it still needs drivers and dispatchers.

Large companies have HR departments to handle that. Most SMEs don't. That's the gap Job Skills fills.

Our employer recruitment services help you:

• Write job postings that attract the right candidates
• Pre-screen applicants so you only interview people worth your time
• Connect with job-ready candidates across York Region, Peel Region and the GTA
• Get ongoing hiring support as your needs change

And it costs you nothing.

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Job Skills has been doing this since 1988, with eight locations across the GTA. We know the local labour market, and we know how to move people from one industry into another.